Agenda item

To present the report of the Head of Profession (HR) and Transformation.

The report of the Head of Profession (HR) and Transformation incorporating information about the Council’s population demographic following the release of the 2021 census was presented for the Committee’s consideration.

Councillor Carwyn Jones, Deputy Leader and Portfolio Member for Economic Development, Leisure and Tourism in presenting the report said that it is based on the census first release on 28 June, 2022; future census releases will be evaluated and the report will be updated accordingly. The data presented highlights the changes in Anglesey’s population between 1981 and 2021 with regard to population density, number of households, population by age and regional changes and differences and is valuable in helping shape and plan services for the future. The headline statistics for Anglesey show that the Island’s population has decreased since the last census in 2011; the proportion of the population aged 65 or older has increased as has the size of the population aged 85 years or older and is forecast to continue increasing. While the proportion of the population aged 15 or under is currently stable it has declined since 1981; a more marked decrease is reflected in the size of the working age population which is down 4.2% on the 2011 census figure.

In considering the census data and its implications for service provision the Committee discussed the following –

·         The extent to which the data influences the structure and nature of the Council’s services in the long-term

The Committee was advised that the Council will need to adapt and recalibrate its budgets in order to prioritise funding and resources to those areas where the census data indicates they will be needed most e.g. an increasing older population as well as expanding its provision as regards housing, transport and community support. The challenge lies in achieving those changes incrementally so that current day to day provision is not impacted by long term strategic decisions. Of vital importance in countering the trend towards a predominantly ageing population is the Council’s drive to grow the economy of Anglesey by attracting investment and employment to the Island.

·         The ways in which Social Services will use the data to prepare for demographic changes

The Committee was advised that the increase in the 85+ population poses the greatest challenge as regards the type of provision that will need to be made as well as how and where it will be made. The Council continues to develop and expand its extra care provision as well as providing suitable housing for older people that is adaptive to their changing needs. The increasing number of older people with dementia for whom community provision is a risk, and the lack of family support as the population has become increasingly dispersed are factors which Social Services have to deal with meaning there is no one solution; addressing the situation requires a combination of different approaches and also means being clear and honest about what the Council can and cannot do.

·         The challenges in trying to provide suitable affordable housing for young people which is a Council priority at the same time as meeting the housing needs of an increasingly ageing population at two ends of the age spectrum.

The Committee was advised that the census data provides useful baseline information regarding the Island’s population and the trends going forward. The Housing Service is also required to undertake a local housing survey every five years which sets out the housing needs for that period and it is expected that the age profiles provided by the census will be reflected in the survey. Extra care housing schemes as well as a scheme to develop more bungalow accommodation are designed to help older people live independently for longer as well as freeing up larger family homes; the council house building programme mitigates some of the housing supply risks and in addition a range of tenancies is being developed including general social rent housing, intermediate social rent housing and a shared equity scheme. Three housing associations also operate on the Island which provides valued support in meeting housing needs.

·         The extent to which the increase in the older population is reflected in the funding formula for Anglesey and the need to make representations to ensure a fair settlement for the Island.

The Committee was advised that the funding allocation formula takes account of the population profile  including the number of older people as well as other factors including school pupils; people in receipt of benefits and children in receipt of free school meals. In response to a comment about the need to use the census information about Anglesey’s ageing population to make a case through the WLGA for fair funding for the Council, assurance was provided that the matter would be escalated for discussion to the WLGA’s Rural Forum which deals with issues specific to rural counties and communities.

·         Planning for school places and the degree to which the Schools’ Modernisation Programme needs to be reviewed in light of what the census statistics say about the decreasing 15 years old and under population

The Committee was advised that the school modernisation plans are under discussion and will as a matter of course take account of population data and trends as revealed in the 2021 census data release. Plans for school places have to reflect current as well as future needs and given the financial context, they will also have to have regard of the financial challenges facing the Council.

It was resolved to accept and to note the information set out in the census data report.